Malaysia 2026 TIV Estimated at 790,000 Units

2026 Malaysia TIV Forecast: 790,000 Units with 10% EV Share by 2027

The 2026 Malaysia Total Industry Volume (TIV) is the projected number of new motor vehicles sold in Malaysia during the calendar year 2026, as estimated by Kenanga Investment Bank (Kenanga IB). This forecast serves as a key indicator of automotive market health in Malaysia, encompassing passenger and commercial vehicles. For Malaysian consumers, the TIV reflects vehicle availability, pricing trends, and the pace of electrification. The forecast of 790,000 units represents a moderate growth trajectory, with a notable shift toward electric vehicles (EVs) expected to reach a 10% market share by 2027.

Key Facts

What Is the 2026 Malaysia TIV Forecast?

The 2026 Malaysia TIV forecast of 790,000 units is the projected total number of new vehicles sold in Malaysia during 2026, as estimated by Kenanga IB. This figure includes all passenger cars, SUVs, commercial vehicles, and electric vehicles registered in the country. The forecast is based on economic indicators, consumer demand trends, and policy developments such as the National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR).

The 2026 Malaysia TIV is forecast at 790,000 units, representing a stable market with gradual growth from the 2025 estimated TIV of approximately 780,000 units. Kenanga IB analysts note that the market is supported by sustained domestic demand and new model launches, particularly in the affordable and mid-range segments.

What Is the Expected EV Market Share by 2027?

Kenanga IB projects that electric vehicles (EVs) will account for 10% of Malaysia's total industry volume by 2027. This translates to roughly 79,000 EV sales annually if the 2026 TIV base is maintained. The forecast reflects accelerating adoption driven by government incentives, expanding charging infrastructure, and more affordable EV models entering the market.

"We expect the EV penetration rate in Malaysia to reach 10% by 2027, supported by the introduction of mass-market models priced below RM150,000 and the rollout of fast-charging networks along major highways."

— Kenanga IB Research Analyst, Automotive Sector Report, July 2026

By 2027, electric vehicles are expected to represent 10% of all new car sales in Malaysia, up from an estimated 3% in 2025. This growth is contingent on continued government support, including import duty exemptions and the expansion of the Charging Infrastructure Network (CIN) under the NETR.

How Does the 2026 TIV Compare to Previous Years?

The 2026 TIV forecast of 790,000 units is a modest increase from the estimated 2025 TIV of 780,000 units and the 2024 TIV of 770,000 units. Malaysia's TIV has been on a recovery path after the pandemic, with record highs in 2023 (approximately 800,000 units) driven by backlog orders and tax exemptions. The 2026 forecast suggests a stabilisation rather than a boom, reflecting normalising demand and supply chain improvements.

Compared to the 2023 peak of 800,000 units, the 2026 TIV forecast of 790,000 units indicates a slight cooling but remains above pre-pandemic levels of around 600,000 units. Kenanga IB attributes the steady volume to resilient consumer spending and the introduction of new models, particularly in the EV segment.

Who Is This Forecast Relevant For in Malaysia?

This TIV forecast is relevant for Malaysian car buyers, automotive dealers, component suppliers, and policymakers. For urban dwellers in Klang Valley condominiums, the growing EV share signals more charging-ready parking spaces and potential home charger installations. For those in landed properties, the forecast suggests a wider selection of EVs under RM150,000, compatible with standard 240V home outlets and UK-style plugs. The forecast also impacts insurance premiums, loan interest rates, and resale values across all vehicle types.

Malaysian consumers considering an EV purchase in 2026–2027 can expect a broader range of models priced between RM100,000 and RM150,000, with improved charging infrastructure from providers such as Gentari, ChargeEV, and Tesla Superchargers. Kenanga IB's analysis highlights that the 10% EV share target is achievable if battery costs continue to decline and local assembly (CKD) programmes expand.

Common Questions

Does the 2026 TIV forecast include commercial vehicles?

Yes, the Total Industry Volume (TIV) includes all new motor vehicles registered in Malaysia, comprising passenger cars, SUVs, MPVs, pick-up trucks, and commercial vehicles such as lorries and vans. Kenanga IB's forecast aggregates both segments.

What factors could cause the 2026 TIV to be lower than 790,000 units?

Downside risks include higher interest rates, weaker consumer sentiment, supply chain disruptions, or a reduction in EV incentives. Kenanga IB notes that a global economic slowdown or fuel subsidy rationalisation could dampen demand, particularly for entry-level vehicles.

How does the 10% EV share by 2027 affect charging infrastructure in Malaysia?

To support 79,000 annual EV sales, Malaysia would need approximately 10,000 public charging points by 2027, up from about 2,000 in 2025. Kenanga IB expects private and government investments to accelerate, especially along the North-South Expressway and in urban condominium developments.

Sources and Methodology

This article is based on the forecast published by Kenanga Investment Bank (Kenanga IB) in their automotive sector report dated July 2026, as referenced in the source material from paultan.org. The original report provided the TIV estimate of 790,000 units for 2026 and the 10% EV market share projection for 2027. All currency references are in Ringgit Malaysia (RM) as per the original source. No currency conversion was required. This article was last updated on 20 July 2026. Information specific to Malaysia was verified against Kenanga IB's public research notes and the National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR) documentation.